Another Cold Core Setup Looming?

Thursday (3/30) appears to be the next best shot at some severe weather for the Central Plains and already the setup is a bit intriguing, even this far out. The models are far from being in agreement as of yet, but if the current trends continue, it could make for an interesting end to the week. The GFS is firing the surface low far to the north, but the potential for another developing to the south exists. I likely will not be available to chase on this event, but will still be eager to see it play out.

Chaser Mike Perigrine of the Kansas City area recently posted a great overview of the potential for this to be another cold core severe weather setup in his posting Take a Cold Core Shower. Cold core setups and the dynamics involved are virgin material for this chaser just recently transplanted to Kansas. After reading up on some of the recommended reading by Jon Davies on 500 mb cold core lows, including a case study of a setup here in KS last fall, I am intrigued by the specific, yet often times less complex techniques that are called for when it comes to forecasting and chasing a system such as this. The first hurdle is that one must first throw out many of the traditional headlines - instability, T and Td threshholds we are used to, etc… and instead focus on a few basics. As Mike mentions:

Basically, what happens is - in an extremely narrow corridor pulling ahead of the triple point, moisture and instability pull in very close to the TP … it always seems to trigger within 200 statute miles of the triple point - so for a chaser interested in catching a cold core tornado, all you have to do is hug the TP … can’t get any more simple than that!

Further technical reading on the topic can be found in this paper:
Davies, Jonathan M., and J. L. Guyer, 2004: A Preliminary Climatology of Tornado Events with Closed Cold Core 500 mb Lows in the Central and Eastern United States. (22nd SLS Conference)