(Cyber) Target: Eastern KS

And yes, that is broad. But higher resolution is not justifiable at this point. Northeast and North Central OK is looking even better for individual SVR cells, but I’ve paid more attention to the KS setup - what could be within driving distance.

Without the opportunity to chase tomorrow, I’ve admittedly put less into the forecast for this event than I would have in preparation for a full-on chase, but tomorrow is still looking good. This is not as clear-cut of a “cold-core” case as was previously suggested by the GFS (500mb temps have warmed, sfc moisture is progged now to be higher than previously forecast, etc…) but it will still clearly be a springtime setup - overcoming a dry boundary layer takes extra work. And it’ll be an early start.

The dryline surging east through KS will be a nice forcing mechanism, although there is still little moisture in place in this area so all necessary moisture must be advected in over the next ~18 hours over a relatively dry surface. Model forecasts for 60+ Td’s are not out of line, but it isn’t a given. Anything lower will act to lessen the differential across the focus of lift: the dryline. Additional uncertainties and difficulty in pinning a point target are introduced by the sloppy morning/midday convection that is likely in Eastern KS before the real show. It appears as though the best SVR shot is the early afternoon play: as soon as convection fires not long after noon in the areas that cleared out the earliest. There is virtually no cap in place, so whenever it gets a little kick, the show will be on, before going linear with unidirectional sheer in the afternoon/evening and marching east across the KS/MO as a nice rush-hour squall line. Attempting to forecast locations of boundaries that setup mid-day following that early convection is nearly futile this early, so the best play from my non-deployment “cyber” chase status is to remain ambiguous: As far as a relatively local target, I like the looks of Eastern KS in the early afternoon, particuarly whatever areas can clear out earliest. From the computer, I can get to any target I want, so I don’t need to be more specific than that!