Today’s Target: Tecumseh, NE

2 m Td; 12 hour NAM valid 00Z SUN … Will this moisture verify?

Today’s shear profiles and instability parameters are looking good as today’s system sets up, although much of KS will be under the CAP, keeping the best of the show on the N and E fringes of the instability. I’m hoping a few nice cells can get rooted and push through the cap in extreme SE NE in the late afternoon, by which time the cap erodes nicely ~00Z throughout much of NW MO so the show should be underway by then.

I’m not sold on the northern tier of the SPC’s MDT risk…there is just no moisture there. The NAM is still out to lunch when it comes to Td’s. Current readings in the upper-50s throughout much of NE KS … even as low as the low-40s in SE NE - the heart of today’s MDT risk as targetted by the SPC. Evapotranspiration isn’t going to do the trick this early in the season, nor is advection. If there is to be a show today, it is going to hug the edge of the cap just north of the KS/NE border and fire into NW MO and the IA/MO border.

I’m not holding my breath for this show, nor am I packing up and heading out quite yet. We’ve got several errands to run and other work to get done around here, so I’ll wait this one out for now and see how things are lookign in a few hours.