Chase Target: Hastings, NE

Day 1 (and likely the only day) of our chase vacation is underway with a preliminary target of Hastings, NE as a starting point with revision to the S as needed…given our morning placement, we’d rather be on the southern end of this show, hoping to catch the end of the line rather than racing to the northern edge of the best instability (Norfolk, NE and northward?) as that would be a race against time.

Ongoing overnight convection (MCS) has slopped up the surface data and impeded the models from having a good grasp of the best instability placement for later this afternoon. However, we’re encouraged by the outflow that should be set up on the western edge of this MCS and be available to interact with the cold front as it pushes SW this afternoon/evening. Caveats include the exact placement of this afternoon’s boundaries as well as how quick the clearing comes about. I’m encouraged by the decent decay rate and SW movement of the current convection as giving us a good afternoon window for some heating to encourage surface-based cell growth.

With a cap eroding in the mid-afternoon, the mid-level jet coming into play at ~50kts, a nice low-level jet nosing in through eastern KS, initiation should occur in the 3-5pm timeframe. However, in the last couple of hours, VIS SAT trends do indicate some blossoming convection on the SW edge of the MCS in Western NE and KS which is not what I’d like to see at this point in thte game…clearing and a cap is what we need this morning.

Depending on how far north we travel, the mean storm motion of ~SW should allow us to ride the convection home and if nothing else, provide a nice opportunity to experiment with some lightning photography this evening.

As this looks like our only real SVR shot during our chase vacation window (6/4-6/7), we’re optimistic about the day.