April 2007

The media had a field day when earlier research indicated hurricane strength could increase as a result of global warming. The premise was that warmer ocean waters would provide the fuel for hurricanes to strengthen. Fair enough - the logic seems sound. But more recent peer-reviewed scientific research flies in the face of the alarmist claims that regularly get reported by the media. New research published by Gabriel Vecchi an Brian Soden in today’s Geophysical Research Letters (the abstract is available publicly, full text only for paid subscribers):

Increased tropical Atlantic wind shear in model projections of global warming

Geophys. Res. Lett., Vol. 34, No. 8, L08702

To help understand possible impacts of anthropogenic greenhouse warming on hurricane activity, we assess model-projected changes in large-scale environmental factors tied to variations in hurricane statistics. This study focuses on vertical wind shear (V_s) over the tropical Atlantic during hurricane season, the increase of which has been historically associated with diminished hurricane activity and intensity. A suite of state-of-the-art global climate model experiments is used to project changes in V_s over the 21st century. Substantial increases in tropical Atlantic and East Pacific shear are robust features of these experiments, and are shown to be connected to the model-projected decrease in the Pacific Walker circulation. The relative changes in shear are found to be comparable to those of other large-scale environmental parameters associated with Atlantic hurricane activity. The influence of these V_s changes should be incorporated into projections of long-term hurricane activity.

So what does this all mean? As summarized in an article published Tuesday by Reuters, Global warming may spur wind sheer, sap hurricanes:

Global warming could increase a climate phenomenon known as wind shear that inhibits Atlantic hurricanes, a potentially positive result of climate change, according to new research released on Tuesday.

The study, to be published on Wednesday in Geophysical Research Letters, found that climate model simulations show a “robust increase” in wind shear in the tropical Atlantic during the 21st century from global warming.

Wind sheer, in a nutshell, is a hurricane’s worst enemy.

Beyond warm ocean waters, hurricanes and other tropical systems require favorable upper-air environment. This means winds blowing in the right directions throughout all layers of the atmosphere (think of a corkscrew). Winds blowing from opposite directions and/or speeds in upper layers of the atmosphere is the phenomenon known as wind sheer. The wrong kind of wind sheer tears hurricanes and other tropical systems apart, reducing their viability; both their lifespan and their strength.

The Reuters article continues, including the seemingly requisite inclusion of Katrina for any media article on hurricanes:

Debate on the likelihood that human-generated climate change contributes to hurricane development has raged since the 2005 Atlantic season, which produced a record-shattering 28 tropical storms and hurricanes.

That season saw some of the most powerful hurricanes in history and produced Katrina, which killed 1,500 people and caused $80 billion damage on the U.S. Gulf Coast. The hurricane threat roiled global oil and gas markets.

The authors of the study took the direct approach in responding to critics who cite earlier research on warmer ocean waters strengthening tropical systems, including the IPCC:

In recent years some scientists have suggested that human-induced greenhouse warming may be increasing the intensity of Atlantic hurricanes by heating up the sea water from which they draw their energy.

In February a report by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change said it was “more likely than not” that humans contribute to a trend of increasingly intense hurricanes.

But researchers in the new study said increased wind shear could counter the effect of warming waters in the Atlantic.

“The environmental changes found in the study do not suggest a big increase in tropical Atlantic hurricane activity during the 21st century,” said Brian Soden, a co-author of the report.

This research highlights the likely, long-term implications of global climate change on tropical systems, rather than shorter-term cyclical issues. Alternatively, in the near term, hurricane trends are likely on the increase. This increase will no-doubt be used as big red flag by the likes of Laurie David, Sheryl Crow, Al Gore, and other non-scientist global warming alarmists. But not so fast - this projected busier-than average hurricane seasons are part of a relatively well-understood and very natural cycle, as I wrote about previously on Newsbusters and also cited in Tuesday’s article:

Hurricane researchers believe the Atlantic-Caribbean hurricane zone is in a period of heightened activity that began around 1995 and could last between 25 and 40 years.

NOAA published a great summary of the multi-decadal hurricane variability following the catastrophic 2005 hurricane season. In referring to the current era of increased hurricane frequency (emphasis mine):

This era has been unfolding in the Atlantic since 1995, and is expected to continue for the next decade or perhaps longer. NOAA attributes this increased activity to natural occurring cycles in tropical climate patterns near the equator. These cycles, called “the tropical multi-decadal signal,” typically last several decades (20 to 30 years or even longer). As a result, the North Atlantic experiences alternating decades long (20 to 30 year periods or even longer) of above normal or below normal hurricane seasons. NOAA research shows that the tropical multi-decadal signal is causing the increased Atlantic hurricane activity since 1995, and is not related to greenhouse warming.

Odds favor that 2007 will yield an above-average season when it comes to tropical activity. As such, I can’t imagine that any research indicating global climate change decreasing the number of destructive hurricanes that may impact the US will get much media attention.

Technorati Tags: Global Warming, Climate Change, Hurricanes

This is just too good to pass up:

BRUSSELS, April 3 (RIA Novosti) - The government of Belgium’s French-speaking region of Wallonia, which has a population of about 4 million, has approved a tax on barbequing, local media reported.

Experts said that between 50 and 100 grams of CO2, a so-called greenhouse gas, is emitted during barbequing. Beginning June 2007, residents of Wallonia will have to pay 20 euros for a grilling session.

The local authorities plan to monitor compliance with the new tax legislation from helicopters, whose thermal sensors will detect burning grills.

Scientists believe CO2 emissions are a major cause of global warming.

Where to begin? First off - how many “grams of CO2″ will be emitted by those helicopters buzzing around to ensure compliance?

[Update 04/04/07:  This is apparently a hoax - thanks to reader Mike for commenting.  It goes without saying that the rest of the post (below) is still relevant.  Furthermore, I think it speaks volumes that the (hoax)story posted above didn’t generate more buzz than it did - it is exactly what people have come to expect from the global warming alarmist culture]

This isn’t the first time a global warming tax has been proposed or legislated. Some energy companies have even caved to the idea of a global warming tax. And in New Zealand, an initiative set to go into affect this month adds 6-9% to household energy prices as a global warming tax. These taxes are apparently intended to lower energy consumption. But where does the money go? That question never gets answered.

Just this week, Time magazine published a list of 51 things you can do as part of its “Global Warming Survival Guide“. Number 5 was pay more taxes:

A 10% flat carbon tax might reduce the demand for carbon about 5% or less, according to an analysis by the Carbon Tax Center, an environmental advocacy group. That may not be enough. Businesses and governments haven’t figured out how the two competing regimes can work together, but in the end, the world may need both.

But again, where will the millions/billions in revenue go? The article doesn’t say.

An editorial recently published in a Vermont newspaper (Warming will be excuse for new taxes) examines the real motivation behind such taxes:

Here is how it could work. Our actions are blamed for global warming. That’s when guilt will take over. The pronounced dire consequences of global warming will allow fear to overtake us. As victims we will then comply with whatever lawmakers require, which could mean new taxes, fines or punishments.

[…]

Our homes will be prime targets. Square footage will see a new tax. Heating oil will be additionally taxed. Emissions spewing lawn mowers could require a costly new permit.

All vehicles will be taxed or fined. So will recreational vehicles such as snowmobiles, ATVs and travel trailers.

Everything, absolutely everything, will be tied to global warming. That means virtually everything could see a new Vermont tax, fine or punishment.

The Vermont Legislature may follow Al Gore’s suggestion to impose a new “carbon tax” on all Americans.

If we thought the Patriot Act took away some of our freedoms, just wait until this plan kicks in.

Get ready to see many more taxes, fees, charges, and other limitations enacted in the name of “global warming”; this is just the beginning.

Technorati Tags: Global Warming, Global Warming Skeptic, Climate Change, Global Warming Tax